March 25, 2008

Beijing-Moscow love fest illusions.

I recall that during Cold War times the Soviets were supposed to be apoplectic about Die Gelbe Gefahr. If that was an accurate description of Soviet attitudes, the recent Russian-Chinese chumminess embodied in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization should have evoked some skepticism, especially in view of the vast open spaces of Siberia lying just across the border from a densely populated China. Brian Whitmore discusses one major area of competition the two countries will have to deal with:
I But despite the hype in Moscow and Beijing, analysts say the long-term prospects for an anti-Western Sino-Russian axis are less promising than official statements suggest. Beneath the platitudes about strategic global cooperation and partnership lies a growing local rivalry: a fierce competition between Moscow and Beijing for energy reserves in Central Asia, a region in both countries' backyards that both view as a vital sphere of influence.

"In the last year, many analysts have spoken about a Sino-Russian axis. But it is not an axis. It is a tactical alignment against some United States moves," says Federico Bordonaro, a Rome-based analyst with the "Power and Interest News Report." "In the medium term, competition between China and Russia is set to take a more important place in relations between Beijing and Moscow. This is due to the fact that Beijing absolutely needs energy and the same energy is in the strategic interests of Russia."

China's breakneck economic growth -- 11.4 percent last year -- has sparked an insatiable appetite for energy that has led Beijing to eye Central Asia's oil and gas reserves.
"Central Asia: Behind The Hype, Russia And China Vie For Region's Energy Resources." By Brian Whitmore, RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, 3/22/08.

No comments: