Sky is falling. Definitely.

With 20 reported U.S. cases of swine flu in five states -- said to be “mild” cases -- the government has declared a public health emergency. No overreaction here. Twenty cases out of 300 million or .00006% of our population and 12 million doses of the drug Tamiflu on the way.

When’s the last time we saw lots and lots of people come down with a serious disease? Polio epidemics before the Salk vaccine? 1950ish?

This is just the ticket to allow the Department of Homeland Security to do a little announcing, posturing, scaremongering, and diverting of attention from its pathetic term paper on out-of-control veterans of the Battle of the Argonne Woods.

Not to be outdone, Dr. Richard Besser:

"As we continue to look for cases, we are going to see a broader spectrum of disease," predicted Dr. Richard Besser, acting chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "We're going to see more severe disease in this country."

How Besser knows that we’ll find a “broader spectrum” of disease and that we’re going to find “more severe” disease here (presumably swine flu) isn’t clear to me. If you look for something, why is it exactly that you’ll find more of it and it will be unlike what you’ve found so far? Since, according to the source below, it’s the same strain causing death in Mexico and mild illness here, wouldn’t that be an indication that we’ll find the “same spectrum [strain?]” if more cases are discovered? If 100% of the U.S. cases have been mild, isn’t the 21st case likely to be mild too?

"US declares public health emergency for swine flu." Associated Press. Yahoo! News, 4/26/09.