Global warming -- CO2 irrelevant, cooling until 2031.

Girma Orssengo reaches several interesting conclusions^[1] about global warming.

First, tree ring data from 1810 to 1910 show the same warming trend as data [based on direct temperature measurements] from the Hadley Centre from year 1850 to 2008 -- 0.47 deg C/100 years versus 0.44 deg C/100 years.

Given “significant increase in human emission of CO2” in the last century, it’s clear that “the linear [i.e., a straight, upward line as observed from a graphed calculation] warming of the last century was not caused by human emission of CO2.” Or, another way of stating that is:

1810-1910 (no significant human-caused CO2) -- warming of 0.47 deg C/100.

1850-2008 (significant human-caused CO2) -- warming of 0.44 deg C/100.^[2]

Or, a slightly faster rate of warming amounting to 0.03 deg C/100 years when human-caused CO2 was much less than when it was more.

Ergo, “the linear warming of the last century was not caused by human emission of CO2.”

Since the linear plot of temperature is not what is observed in nature, Dr. Orssengo addresses the issue of temperature oscillations to see if there is a CO2 causal component.

The above plot clearly shows the following shifts in mean global temperatures:

Global cooling by 0.71 deg C from 1878 to 1911, for 33 years.

Global warming by 0.53 deg C from 1911 to 1944, for 33 years.

Global cooling by 0.48 deg C from 1944 to 1976, for 32 years.

Global warming by 0.67 deg C from 1976 to 1998, for 22 years.

Here, too, “CO2 driven global warming is not supported by the data” and “the temperature maximum for 1998, after widespread use of fossil fuels, is not unusual.”

Not only is the peak temperature not unusual but the trend is now downward. The data show that the global warming cycle that began in 1976 peaked in 1998 and started to decline thereafter. Inexorably:

. . . [T]he probability for the temperature to return to the maximum value of 1998 is less than 1%. The more probable case is to rely on historical patterns and the current trend. . . . If [the pattern after 1878, with global cooling for 33 years] is repeated, we will have about 22 more years of global cooling until about 2031, to anomaly temperature values similar to those in the 1970s, wiping out most of the increase in temperature during the last three decades of the last century.

In short, the globe will be cooling till 2031 during the present downward cycle.

Bottom line, according to Dr. Orssengo:

Science is about the data. Science is not about consensus or authority.

The linear global warming of the last century was similar to that of two centuries ago. The oscillating warming by 0.67 deg C from 1976 to 1998 is as natural as the oscillating cooling by similar amount from 1878 to 1911. . . .[T]here is no shift in mean global temperature anomaly in the last century as a result of CO2 emission. None.

CO2 driven global warming is not supported by the data.

Notes
^[1] "CO2 driven global warming is not supported by the data." By Girma Orssengo, MASc, Ph.D., American Thinker, 10/18/09 (emphasis added).
^[2] But, note that even though human-caused CO2 has in the last century increased greatly from what humans caused before, the absolute amount of human-caused CO2 is small compared to CO2 from natural sources -- only 3%.